Two games, two four-wicket wins, both chases, both going down to the wire. That is how India arrive in Wellington, and Tuesday is the first chance to finish the job.
The 3rd T20I starts at 12:30 PM IST on Tuesday, October 27, at Sky Stadium, Wellington. Win it and the five-match series is India’s 3-0, with two games still to play. Lose it and New Zealand are back in the series, with the hosts having finally found a way to defend a total.
How the series got here
Christchurch told the same story twice, with different heroes.
In the opener, New Zealand posted 225 for 4, Glenn Phillips unbeaten on 82 from 40 balls, and India still chased it down: 230 for 6 in 19.4 overs, Sanju Samson leading with 67 from 33, Naman Dhir finishing unbeaten on 42. It was India’s highest T20I chase.
The second game was tighter. New Zealand made 180 for 5, Phillips again top-scoring with 70 from 43 and Bevon Jacobs adding 58 from 46. India slipped to 112 for 6 before Tilak Varma’s unbeaten 51 from 26 balls and Nitish Kumar Reddy’s unbeaten 26 from 13 turned it around, winning with one ball to spare. Mitchell Santner took 4 for 21 and still ended on the losing side.
The pattern is plain. New Zealand’s batting, built around Phillips, has been competitive in both games. India’s deep batting order has found a way home twice. Wellington asks whether the hosts can defend a total, or whether India can chase for a third straight time.
The duel that could decide it
Samson against Santner. The New Zealand captain has dismissed Samson twice in T20Is, and Samson has scored only 21 runs from 23 balls against him in those meetings. In the opener, Santner bowled Samson in the ninth over, ending a stay of 67 from 33 balls.
Santner has six wickets in the series so far, 2 for 39 in game one and 4 for 21 in game two, and he is the most dangerous bowler New Zealand have. Expect him early against Samson again. If Samson gets past that spell, India’s chase usually follows. If Santner strikes early a third time, New Zealand finally get the opening they have been chasing.
Players to watch
Tilak Varma walks into Wellington as the man who saved game two, unbeaten on 51 from 26 when India were 112 for 6. Naman Dhir has been the quiet find of the series: 73 runs across two knocks at a strike rate above 228, calm at the death in both games. Former India batter Ajinkya Rahane, previewing the match, picked out Abhishek Sharma and Dhir as the Indians to watch, saying Abhishek scoring a fifty would be a good sign for a player in form who has 56 runs in two innings so far.
For New Zealand, it starts and ends with Phillips: 82 not out and 70 in the two games, the one batter India have not solved. Jacobs, with 58 in game two, is the second threat. Ishan Kishan missed the last game with a niggle, so his availability is worth checking at the toss.
Wellington conditions
Sky Stadium’s T20I first-innings average sits around 153, and chasing teams have had a slight edge there. The surface is expected to offer early help to fast bowlers, with bounce and movement for the new ball, before batting gets easier as the innings goes on. Wellington’s wind is part of the game too: strong northwest winds forecast to ease by evening can limit dew and help swing early. The toss matters here, and bowling first will appeal to the captain who wins it.
Probable XIs (from pre-match listings, to confirm at the toss)
India: Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson (wk), Vaibhav Sooryavanshi, Shreyas Iyer (captain), Tilak Varma, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Naman Dhir, Axar Patel, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Arshdeep Singh, Prince Yadav.
New Zealand: Tim Seifert (wk), Finn Allen, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Bevon Jacobs, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner (captain), Nathan Smith, Matt Henry, Jacob Duffy, Lockie Ferguson.
Where to watch
First ball 12:30 PM IST, Tuesday, October 27, Sky Stadium, Wellington. Sony Sports Network on TV in India, Sony LIV streaming. Remaining fixtures after this one: 4th T20I on Friday, October 30, in Auckland, and 5th T20I on Sunday, November 1, in Hamilton, both at 12:30 PM IST.
The verdict
India should seal it in Wellington. They have chased 226 and then rescued a game from 112 for 6, which is not luck twice over, it is depth. But New Zealand have been ahead in both games at some point, and a home side that keeps getting that close eventually finishes one off. If India win the Samson-Santner duel and keep Phillips quiet for once, this ends 3-0 on Tuesday. If not, the series stays alive for Auckland.