Friday night, somewhere between a refinery control room in Gujarat and an export house in Ludhiana, the phones started buzzing. Donald Trump had signed something. And for once, the something was a reprieve, not a threat.
Late on Friday evening, October 16, Trump signed an executive order putting on hold the duties and sanctions under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. “I am hereby waiving the application of such sanctions, restrictions, and duties provided for in the Graham Act,” the order said, with Trump telling Congress the waiver was in the national interest of the United States, as reported by The Week and ETV Bharat. The timing was not casual. The duties were due to take effect on October 18. The signature landed one day before.
What the law was about to do
The Graham Act, signed into law last month, gave Washington the power to slap tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest importers of Russian-origin crude oil and natural gas, including India and China, if they knowingly made new purchases on or after October 18, 2026, ZeeBiz reported. It also provided for a 100% duty increase on goods from the top five facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion, and a 500% duty on goods from Russia itself. ETV Bharat noted that Section 4 of Friday’s order immediately suspended all of those measures, and the waivers remain until the President or the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Treasury Secretary and the US Trade Representative, decides further action is needed.
India was the country with the most to lose. India imports over 88% of its crude oil requirements, and Russian oil accounted for 45% of total imports in August at 2.08 million barrels per day, the Indian Express reported. A 100% duty on Indian goods would have landed on top of a year in which Indian exporters already absorbed 25% penalties and rates that climbed as high as 50% earlier this year. One more round could have turned a difficult year into an impossible one.
The Trump tariff India scare: a 90-second timeline
Early October: Trump signs the Graham Act into law, with the October 18 deadline for the duties.
Last week: Trump announces on social media that he reached an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call, under which Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November, one million tons after that, and three million more within a short period, ETV Bharat reported. The stated aim: stabilising global energy prices.
Friday, October 16: Trump signs the executive order implementing the Act and simultaneously waiving its duties and several sanctions provisions under Section 4.
Saturday, October 17: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to land in India for a multi-city tour focused on energy, trade and strategic ties, the Indian Express reported. He arrives with the waiver fresh off the printer.
The fine print nobody should skip
A waiver is not a repeal. The duties stay on the books, suspended but revivable whenever the administration decides further action is necessary. So the hammer is holstered, not dismantled, and that distinction is the whole story. Exporters have whiplashed through enough tariff news this year to know the difference between a door closing and a door being locked.
If you run an export business, the feeling tonight is less relief than exhaustion. Relief is what you feel when the problem is solved. This problem has been paused, and pausing is not solving. The honest reading is that Trump kept his leverage: the threat is codified, the deadline is real, and the waiver can be lifted the same way it was granted, with a signature.
Why it matters beyond oil
Look at the week as a whole and the pattern sharpens. On Thursday, the first tranche of the India-US trade deal was finalised, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal saying it had entered legal drafting. Indian merchandise exports to the US grew 11.1% to $50.81 billion in April to September this year, achieved while nobody knew what the tariff regime would look like next week. Now the waiver removes the single biggest overhang from that trade picture, and Rubio lands in Delhi today to talk energy and trade in person. Three moving parts, one weekend, all pointing the same direction. That is not coincidence. It is choreography.
The markets noticed the mood too. Confidence is already running hot in the primary market, where India’s biggest-ever IPO opens for subscription on October 21. A tariff scare detonating on October 18 would have been the worst possible backdrop. Instead, investors walk into the festival quarter with the biggest single risk off the table, for now.
For now, India gets to keep buying the oil it needs and selling the goods it makes. That is not a settlement. It is a ceasefire, and both sides know it. The real question is how long a waiver written to be reversible stays reversed.