The trophy is already settled. India wrapped up this series in Wellington on Tuesday, and Sunday’s game at Seddon Park cannot change that. What the India vs New Zealand 5th T20I can still settle is narrower: whether India’s bowlers leave New Zealand with a working plan for Glenn Phillips, and whether the home side can turn 3-1 into 3-2 before the one-day series starts. The match begins at 12:30 PM IST, 8:00 PM local time, with the toss at 12:00 PM IST, live on Sony Sports Network and streaming on Sony LIV.
The series is decided. The questions are not
India won the first three games in three different ways. In Christchurch they chased 226 with four wickets to spare, Sanju Samson making 67. In the second game they recovered from 112 for 6 to chase 181, Tilak Varma finishing unbeaten on 51. In Wellington they sealed the series by chasing 199 in 13.2 overs, Abhishek Sharma scoring 113 off 38 balls in a world record powerplay of 118 without loss. Then came Auckland, where New Zealand made 259 for 7 and India folded for 172 for 9 in an 87-run defeat that ended the sweep talk.
One man has run this series
Glenn Phillips has scored 276 runs in four innings at an average of 92, according to SportsCafe’s series numbers: 82 not out, 70, and then 107 off 49 balls in Auckland. SportsTak notes that is the most runs any batter has made in a T20I series against India, passing Shai Hope’s 261 in a five-match series. India have tried pace and spin at him and neither has worked for long. Arshdeep Singh has dismissed him once, but Phillips has still taken 64 runs off 41 balls from him, per SportsCafe. In Auckland, the two spinners India did pick, Axar Patel and Naman Dhir, bowled four overs between them for 59 runs, per Sportskeeda. Whatever the plan is on Sunday, it has to be different from that.
The Kuldeep question
Kuldeep Yadav has not bowled a ball in this series. Neither has Varun Chakaravarthy. Both wrist-spinners have sat out all four games while India backed a longer batting order, and after Auckland the question followed the team to Hamilton. Former India batter Ambati Rayudu said publicly that India could have used Kuldeep at Eden Park, per Sportskeeda. Spin bowling coach Sairaj Bahutule, speaking after the fourth game, kept the door open: the combination will be decided once the team sees the Hamilton pitch, and the two spinners might get an opportunity, according to ANI reports. Four games on the bench is a strange way to keep a frontline spinner warm for a one-day series that starts on Wednesday, and with the trophy safe, leaving both out again would be harder to explain than picking one of them.
Hamilton rewards the side that bats first
Seddon Park is a small, tree-lined ground where New Zealand rarely lose. They have won 11 of their 14 T20Is there, per SportsAdda’s venue records, and the first innings average across those games is 179.6. Recent matches have scored higher: the average first innings score over the last six T20 games at the ground is 186.1, per the Statz figures cited by Mathrubhumi, and the side batting first has won five of those six. The ground’s highest T20I total, 212 for 4, was made by New Zealand against India in 2019, and India fell four runs short chasing it. A year later the two sides tied at this ground and India won the Super Over. All of which makes the toss interesting. Shreyas Iyer has won four tosses in a row and bowled first every time. The Hamilton numbers argue for batting first, and India might finally take the hint.
The weather should not interfere. Weather.com puts the rain chance for Sunday in Hamilton at around 10 percent, and the Met Office hourly forecast has it below 5 percent through the evening. Expect about 14 degrees at the start, dropping towards 9 by the finish, with light winds and a full game. Dew is expected later in the evening, which could make gripping the ball harder and favour the side chasing.
Probable XIs
India have hinted at a change or two, and New Zealand have little reason to touch a winning side. Lockie Ferguson was ruled out of this T20I series and Matt Henry has also been an injury concern for the hosts, per Sportstar, which limits their options anyway. Both XIs below are probable, not confirmed.
India (probable): Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson (wk), Ishan Kishan, Shreyas Iyer (capt), Tilak Varma, Naman Dhir, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Arshdeep Singh, Mayank Yadav, Prince Yadav. Varun Chakaravarthy and Nitish Kumar Reddy are the other rotation options if India go a different way.
New Zealand (probable): Finn Allen, Tim Seifert (wk), Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner (capt), Bevon Jacobs, Nathan Smith, Adam Milne, Matt Fisher, Jacob Duffy.
Where this game is won
Two contests decide the India vs New Zealand 5th T20I. The first is Jacob Duffy against India’s openers. Duffy took 4 for 23 in Auckland and removed Samson and Kishan in his first over, and Abhishek, who has 196 runs in the series, cannot let him settle again. The second is Phillips against India’s middle-overs bowling, which is where Kuldeep, if he plays, earns his selection. Mitchell Santner remains New Zealand’s control bowler, with nine wickets in the series at 11.22 runs each, per SportsCafe, on a ground where totals near 190 are normal. The Statz model cited by Mathrubhumi makes India marginal favourites at about 53 percent, and that feels right. The call here is India to win a high-scoring game and take the series 4-1, provided their bowlers hold the last five overs this time. If Phillips bats through the middle overs untouched, the result flips the other way.
After Sunday, the T20Is end and the tour moves on: a five-match ODI series from November 4 to 15, then two Tests. India already have the trophy that matters this week. Hamilton is about the smaller prize of leaving with answers.