Along the Andhra coast, the clean-up from Cyclone Arnab is barely done. Nets are still being mended, roofs still being patched, and now the sea is stirring again. Cyclone Murasu is not yet a cyclone at all. On Saturday it was only a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal. But the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said plainly where it is headed, and that is why this story matters before a single gust reaches land.
A week after Arnab, the Bay stirs again
The system began as a low pressure area over the South Andaman Sea on October 29, according to the IMD bulletins reported by the Times of India. By 11:30 am on Saturday it had become a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal, near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The IMD forecast then runs like a timetable. Deep depression within 12 hours. Cyclonic storm on Sunday, November 1. Severe cyclonic storm by November 2. Then, in the early hours of November 3, a crossing of the south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur.
Late on Saturday evening the depression sat about 960 km east-southeast of Chennai, 980 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1,030 km southeast of Machilipatnam, the IMD said. Far away still, and far enough for the forecast to shift.
What Cyclone Murasu could bring
If the system strengthens as forecast, the IMD expects it to cross the coast as a severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 100-110 kmph, gusting to 120 kmph, according to its Saturday evening bulletin reported by the Times of India and Pragativadi. Readers who saw a lower figure earlier on Saturday are not misremembering. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra was quoted earlier in the day, by Business Standard, putting winds at 80 to 90 kmph with gusts to 100 kmph. The higher figure came later, as the forecast hardened toward severe cyclonic storm strength. The next bulletin is the one that will set shelter decisions.
Rain is the other half of the warning. The IMD has forecast very heavy rainfall in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema on November 2 and 3, with isolated extremely heavy falls, Business Standard reported. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are forecast heavy rain until November 5, the Indian Express reported, and Chennai is expected to receive rain from Sunday, according to DT Next. The IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the sea until at least Wednesday afternoon, and those already at sea to return to harbour. Mohapatra told reporters the sea across the west-central and southeast Bay of Bengal would become disastrous or devastating for small boats from Sunday onward.
Why the second storm hurts more
Andhra Pradesh has no time to reset between these two systems. Cyclone Arnab made landfall on October 28 as a very severe cyclonic storm, with sustained winds of 125 to 135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph, the IMD said in its October 28 press release. Our own report from that morning described nearly 89,000 people on the Kakinada coast being moved to shelters ahead of the storm. Power poles were down by the thousand in Konaseema district alone, and some places recorded more than 200 mm of rain.
Murasu, on the current forecast, will be weaker than Arnab at landfall. That sentence should not reassure anyone in south Odisha. The IMD’s Bhubaneswar centre has issued an orange warning for heavy to very heavy rainfall in Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati and Ganjam districts on November 3 and 4, Argus English reported, with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds at isolated places. Those are districts still recovering from Arnab’s floods. A weaker storm falling on saturated ground, swollen rivers and damaged embankments can do damage out of proportion to its wind speed. Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi reviewed relief work on Saturday, Odisha Today reported, as preparations for the next storm began.
The name, and the number that keeps moving
Murasu is a name contributed by India to the regional cyclone list, and it means drum in Tamil, the Indian Express reported. If this depression becomes a cyclonic storm on Sunday as forecast, it will be the second named storm of the Bay of Bengal season, after Arnab.
One caution, from the IMD itself. Mohapatra told the Times of India that the exact landfall location could not yet be determined, because the system was still several days from the coast. Nellore to Narsapur is the most likely stretch, not a pinpoint. The IMD issued a pre-cyclone watch for the Andhra coast, with a more precise location to follow. Anyone sharing a single village name as the confirmed landfall point this weekend is getting ahead of the department that actually tracks the storm.
This time the sequence is compressed: depression on Saturday, possible cyclone on Sunday, severe storm by Monday, coast by Tuesday morning, leaving districts less slack to move people and stock shelters than when Arnab first formed a week ago.
So watch Sunday’s bulletin first. If the depression becomes a cyclonic storm on schedule, Andhra and south Odisha will spend Monday preparing for a Tuesday morning crossing. If it stalls, the rain warnings may still stand: a disorganised system can still drown a district even when it cannot blow a roof off.